Cognitive Bias #4 — Overconfidence

Nobody asked but …

Self-appointed experts, aka politicians, seem to be the worst.  Here’s an example:  Everybody I talk to, and I talk to a lot of people, say that there is climate change.  So, I have educated myself about it.  Many scientists have found some statistical proxy or computer model that replaces the work of getting a true average temperature for the whole planet, an average temperature that has been adjusted for all change over time and a pretense of knowing all future things.  So, I think that the consensus must be what it is made out to be by a majority of scientists (including those in unrelated fields).  This thing is decided by popular vote, isn’t it?

  — Kilgore Forelle
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