The Peace of Mind in Probabilistic Thinking

It’s very stressful to be confronted with questions and claims about culture, physics, politics, psychology, health, economics, history, ethics, aesthetics, and philosophy and feel the need to have a clear answer. Especially when answers immediately get interpreted as sides and you’ll get lumped in with some tribal collective blob and be associated with whatever bundle of biases they may have, real or imagined. It’s like behind every possibility lurks a mob shouting, “Are you with us or against us?!”

The Shadow Factory

All units (individuals) have agenda.  Each human will try to attach her agenda to the agenda at the highest levels attainable — for instance, in The Shadow Factory, the top set of agenda is that of the White House (nominally authored by George W. Bush, truly by Dick Cheney), a lower but very high set of agenda for the NSA, expressed by and through General Mike Hayden.

I Win My European Unemployment Bet

In 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate exceeded Europe’s for the first time in decades.  Apologists for European labor market regulation rejoiced, so I publicly bet that European unemployment would exceed U.S. unemployment over the next decade.  The original authors I targeted turned me down, even after I offered a 1 percentage-point spread.  But noted economist John Quiggin took the bait.

Who’s In, Who’s Out?

Last week there was a sort of sea change in the ongoing saga of the ships of fools.  POTUS’s former personal attorney, Mr. Cohen, appeared before an assembled committee of congresspersons.  The first takeaway was that Cohen was not a compelling witness.  The second takeaway was that the warring parties fell all over themselves trying to make something of the proceedings. 

Childhood Play and Independence Are Disappearing; Let Grow Seeks to Change That

Many of us are old enough to remember how childhood used to be. Our afternoons were spent outside playing with the neighborhood kids—no adults or cell phones in sight. Sometimes we got hurt, with occasional scraped knees or hurt egos, but we worked it out. We always knew we could go home. We had paper routes, mowed lawns, ran errands, and babysat at ages much earlier than we allow our own kids. What happened to childhood in just a generation that now prompts neighbors to call the police when they see an eight-year-old walking her dog?