Never Hurts to Make Preparations

The virus is likely to surge again this fall, if not sooner. This may trigger a new cascade of overreactions by politicians and more panic by their followers. Maybe people got smarter from experience and won’t fall for the hype this time, but don’t bet your life on it. Be ready, just in case.

What I’m Doing

Most smart people aren’t doing what I’m doing.  Shouldn’t I be worried?  Only slightly.  Even smart people are prone to herding and hysteria.  I’ve now spent three months listening to smart defenders of the conventional view.  Their herding and hysteria are hard to miss.  Granted, non-smart contrarians sound even worse.  But smart contrarians make the most sense of all.

What I’m Thinking

1. Getting people to be rational about politics is an uphill battle during the best of times.  During a global hysteria, it’s hopeless. 2. Due to this doleful realization, I refrained from discussing the lockdown when it first emerged.  The best course, I deemed, was to wait for readers to simmer down. 3. Since many have now simmered down, here’s what I was thinking three months ago.

Market Needs Freedom to Flourish

The world’s economy is being damaged by this pandemic, or, more accurately, it’s being damaged by government reactions to the pandemic. The damage is adding up; getting worse with time. The only questions are: How bad is the damage going to be? And how long will it take to recover? I don’t know the answers;…