Most Success Formulas are Guesses

The human experience mostly consists of trying stuff until you get something right, guessing/deconstructing why you got it right, repeating those elements as many times as possible in as many scenarios as possible until it can no longer be replicated, rinse, repeat.

If what you get right is a big enough win, it will take a very long time and many losses before it’s clear that your guess as to what made you right was incorrect and/or non-repeatable.

Which is why all post-success business books, advice, etc. should be taken with a dose of salt. People don’t know for sure why they succeeded or if it can be repeated. They try to figure it out and test it.

Sometimes people’s success stories appear to have different reasons/lessons than the ones they themselves give. The person who succeeded is often in best position to learn why, but can also be “too close” to spot the reasons.