Liars II

Nobody asked but …

You cannot take an outlier, then call it an unusual pattern. What is unusual is the outlier, and no pattern has been established.  People love to cite a patch of unusual weather, then treat it as though it were going to be the norm from here on out, then concoct seemingly plausible explanations for the unusual-turned-usual.

It is related to the gambler’s fallacy.  The fallacy is that unrelated events are related and will predict a future event.  If red comes up on a roulette wheel 20 consecutive time, there is still no predictability what will happen on the 21st spin.  Either that is the case, or the roulette wheel is loaded.

People, such as POTUS’es or pop journalists who would tell you otherwise, to serve some ulterior agenda, are deliberately lying to you.  Beware of those who take advantage of the natural human inclination to be innumerate.

— Kilgore Forelle

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Kilgore Forelle

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